Monday, January 17, 2011

The Best Way to Rob a Bank is to Own One


By Bill Black

The new mantra of the Republican Party is the old mantra — regulation is a “job killer.” It is certainly possible to have regulations kill jobs, and when I was a financial regulator I was a leader in cutting away many dumb requirements. But we have just experienced the epic ability of the anti-regulators to kill well over ten million jobs. Why then is there not a single word from the new House leadership about investigations to determine how the anti-regulators did their damage? Why is there no plan to investigate the fields in which inadequate regulation most endangers jobs? While we’re at it, why not investigate the areas in which inadequate regulation allows firms to maim and kill. This column addresses only financial regulation.

Deregulation, desupervision, and de facto decriminalization (the three “des”) created the criminogenic environment that drove the modern U.S. financial crises. The three “des” were essential to create the epidemics of accounting control fraud that hyper-inflated the bubble that triggered the Great Recession. “Job killing” is a combination of two factors — increased job losses and decreased job creation. I’ll focus solely on private sector jobs — but the recession has also been devastating in terms of the loss of state and local governmental jobs.

From 1996-2000, for example, annual private sector gross job increases rose from roughly 14 million to 16 million while annual private sector gross job losses increased from 12 to 13 million. The annual net job increases in those years, therefore, rose from two million to three million. Over that five year period, the net increase in private sector jobs was over 10 million. One common rule of thumb is that the economy needs to produce an annual net increase of about 1.5 million jobs to employ new entrants to our workforce, so the growth rate in this era was large enough to make the unemployment and poverty rates fall significantly.

The Great Recession (which officially began in the third quarter of 2007) shows why the anti-regulators are the premier job killers in America. Annual private sector gross job losses rose from roughly 12.5 to a peak of 16 million and gross private sector job gains fell from approximately 13 to 10 million. As late as March 2010, after the official end of the Great Recession, the annualized net job loss in the private sector was approximately three million (that job loss has now turned around, but the increases are far too small).

Again, we need net gains of roughly 1.5 million jobs to accommodate new workers, so the total net job losses plus the loss of essential job growth was well over 10 million during the Great Recession. These numbers, again, do not include the large job losses of state and local government workers, the dramatic rise in underemployment, the sharp rise in far longer-term unemployment, and the salary/wage (and job satisfaction) losses that many workers had to take to find a new, typically inferior, job after they lost their job. It also ignores the rise in poverty, particularly the scandalous increase in children living in poverty.

The Great Recession was triggered by the collapse of the real estate bubble epidemic of mortgage fraud by lenders that hyper-inflated that bubble. That epidemic could not have happened without the appointment of anti-regulators to key leadership positions. The epidemic of mortgage fraud was centered on loans that the lending industry (behind closed doors) referred to as “liar’s” loans — so any regulatory leader who was not an anti-regulatory ideologue would (as we did in the early 1990s during the first wave of liar’s loans in California) have ordered banks not to make these pervasively fraudulent loans.


One of the problems was the existence of a “regulatory black hole” — most of the nonprime loans were made by lenders not regulated by the federal government. That black hole, however, conceals two broader federal anti-regulatory problems. The federal regulators actively made the black hole more severe by preempting state efforts to protect the public from predatory and fraudulent loans. Greenspan and Bernanke are particularly culpable. In addition to joining the jihad state regulation, the Fed had unique federal regulatory authority under HOEPA (enacted in 1994) to fill the black hole and regulate any housing lender (authority that Bernanke finally used, after liar’s loans had ended, in response to Congressional criticism). The Fed also had direct evidence of the frauds and abuses in nonprime lending because Congress mandated that the Fed hold hearings on predatory lending.

The S&L debacle, the Enron era frauds, and the current crisis were all driven by accounting control fraud. The three “des” are critical factors in creating the criminogenic environments that drive these epidemics of accounting control fraud. The regulators are the “cops on the beat” when it comes to stopping accounting control fraud. If they are made ineffective by the three “des” then cheaters gain a competitive advantage over honest firms. This makes markets perverse and causes recurrent crises.

From roughly 1999 to the present, three administrations have displayed hostility to vigorous regulation and have appointed regulatory leaders largely on the basis of their opposition to vigorous regulation. When these administrations occasionally blundered and appointed, or inherited, regulatory leaders that believed in regulating the administration attacked the regulators. In the financial regulatory sphere, recent examples include Arthur Levitt and William Donaldson (SEC), Brooksley Born (CFTC), and Sheila Bair (FDIC).

Similarly, the bankers used Congress to extort the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) into trashing the accounting rules so that the banks no longer had to recognize their losses. The twin purposes of that bit of successful thuggery were to evade the mandate of the Prompt Corrective Action (PCA) law and to allow banks to pretend that they were solvent and profitable so that they could continue to pay enormous bonuses to their senior officials based on the fictional “income” and “net worth” produced by the scam accounting. (Not recognizing one’s losses increases dollar-for-dollar reported, but fictional, net worth and gross income.)

When members of Congress (mostly Democrats) sought to intimidate us into not taking enforcement actions against the fraudulent S&Ls we blew the whistle. Congress investigated Speaker Wright and the “Keating Five” in response. I testified in both investigations. Why is the new House leadership announcing its intent to give a free pass to the accounting control frauds, their political patrons, and the anti-regulators that created the criminogenic environment that hyper-inflated the financial bubble that triggered the Great Recession and caused such a loss of integrity?

The anti-regulators subverted the rule of law and allowed elite frauds to loot with impunity. Why isn’t the new House leadership investigating that disgrace as one of their top priorities? Why is the new House leadership so eager to repeat the job killing mistakes of taking the regulatory cops off their beat?

Bill Black is an Associate Professor of Economics and Law at the University of Missouri – Kansas City (UMKC). He was the Executive Director of the Institute for Fraud Prevention from 2005-2007. He has taught previously at the LBJ School of Public Affairs at the University of Texas at Austin and at Santa Clara University, where he was also the distinguished scholar in residence for insurance law and a visiting scholar at the Markkula Center for Applied Ethics.

Thursday, January 13, 2011

World moves closer to food price shock


Thanks to the Federal Reserves monetary policy.

The world has moved a step closer to a food price shock after the US government surprised traders by cutting stock forecasts for key crops, sending corn and soyabean prices to their highest level in 30 months.

The price jump comes after the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation warned last week that the world could see repetition of the 2008 food crisis if prices rose further. The trend is becoming a major concern in developing countries.

EDITOR’S CHOICEIn depth: Global food crisis - Jan-12.David Pilling: The price of peas in China - Jan-12.Delhi onion sellers strike against raids - Jan-12.Arab states act to restrain food costs - Jan-12.Food supply woes fatten Cargill earnings - Jan-12.Tunisian protests escalate online - Jan-12..
While officials are drawing comfort from stable rice prices, key for feeding Asia, they warn that a sustained period of high prices, especially in grains such as wheat, would hit poorer countries. Food price hikes have already led to riots in Algeria and Mozambique.

“Stocks of corn and soyabean are at incredibly tight levels ... and the markets are surging to incredibly strong prices,” Chad Hart, agricultural economist at Iowa State University, said.

Dan Basse, president of AgResource, a Chicago-based forecaster, added: “There’s just no room for error any more. With any kind of weather problem in the upcoming growing season we will make new all-time highs in corn and soy, and to a lesser degree wheat futures.”

Agricultural traders and analysts warn that the latest revision to US and global stocks means there is no further room for weather problems. The crops in Argentina and Brazil, to be harvested soon, look fragile due to dryness.

Traders are particularly concerned about the cost of vegetable oil, key for developing countries such as China where an emerging middle class is buying more frying oil. The US Department of Agriculture said the ratio of global stocks-to-demand would fall later this year to “levels unseen since the mid-1970s, reflecting an accelerated pace of vegetable oil” consumption for food and fuel.

In Chicago, the price of soyabeans rose as much as 5.2 per cent to $14.20½ a bushel, the highest since late 2008. The USDA said that domestic stocks-to-demand would drop to the lowest point in nearly half a century.

Corn prices jumped 5 per cent to $6.37 a bushel, the highest level since July 2008.

The USDA said that by August the ratio of US corn stocks-to-demand would fall to a surprisingly thin 5.5 per cent, the smallest cushion in 15 years.

The US is the world’s largest corn supplier, meeting more than half of global import needs. Corn is an important ingredient in animal feed, and the tightening market partly reflects stronger appetites for meat in emerging markets. Record ethanol production in the US will also swallow up nearly 40 per cent of the US crop.

The boom in agricultural prices has lifted the outlook of the agribusiness sector in the US. Cargill, the world’s largest trader of food commodities, said its profits had tripled year-on-year during the second quarter of its fiscal year.

The shares of Deere & Co, the world’s largest manufacturer of tractors and combines, surged 2.3 per cent, approaching an all-time high. But food companies such as Nestlé fell as analysts said they would struggle to pass rising wholesale costs to consumers.

Sunday, January 9, 2011

Free Banking and Private Money


Inflated: How Money and Debt Built the American Dream

The following is chapter one from Chris Whalen's new book.

The book is developing a cult following amongst the Gold and anti-Fed cognescenti, the “inflationati,” and others. Whalen’s background as a former NY Fed analyst and Bear Stearns banker puts him in a good position to look at the history of Inflation and the inherent growth at any cost bias bult into the American system.

In his December 1776 pamphlet The Crisis , Thomas Paine famously said,“These are the times that try men’s souls.” He then proceeded to lay out a detailed assessment of America’s military challenges in fighting the British. But after the fighting was over, America faced the task of creating a new, independent state separate from British trade and especially independent from the banks of the City of London.

The story of money and debt in America is the chronicle of how a fragment of the British empire broke off in the late 1700s and supplanted and surpassed Great Britain in economic terms by the end of WWI. Though Britain for centuries was the dominant economic system in the world, America would come to lead the global economy by the early twentieth century. The English pound was not the first great global currency, nor will the dollar likely be the last. Mankind has been through cycles of inflation and deflation more than once, going back to before Greek and Roman times. The story of money in each society is a description of the ebb and flow of these states in economic as well as social terms.

The latest version of this repeating narrative features a still very young country called America, which has used money and the promise of it to build a global economic empire, but one that may now be in question after almost a century of relative stability. When the 13 colonies reluctantly declared independence from Great Britain in 1776, the young nation had no independent banking system and no common currency, even though most colonists knew the political and financial traditions of Europe. The Articles of Confederation the infant nation adopted in 1777 did not even give the central government the ability to levy taxes to retire the war debt. European banks and governments met the capital needs of the young nation via loans and even provided what limited physical means of exchange were available aside from pure barter. Pawnbrokers were the predominant source of credit for individuals, and businesses obtained commercial credit from banks, mostly foreign. Foreign coins and some colonial paper money were in circulation, but barter was the most common means of payment used by Americans from the start of the nation’s existence through the Civil War.


1 Sidney Homer and Richard Sylla wrote in the classic work A History of Interest Rates :

The American colonies were outposts of an old civilization.Their physical environment was primitive, but their political and financial traditions were not. Therefore, the history of colonial credit and interest rates is not a history of innovation but rather a history of adaptation.

2 The first American government had no credit and was dependent upon private, mostly foreign banks and wealthy individuals for financing. Upon winning independence, the colonies formed states and issued colonial currency. Bonds were issued when possible, with individuals and even the government of France subscribing in the earliest days of the young nation. The Bank of North America was established in Philadelphia by the Continental Congress in 1782 and became the first chartered bank in the United States. Creating a new bank under the control of the American government was an effort to gain some independence from private banks and also from foreign states.

David McCullough’s Pulitzer Prize-winning biography, John Adams, presents several scenes where the ambassador of the new American government went literally hat in hand to the capitals of Europe seeking hard currency loans to finance the most basic needs. The tireless Adams was able to secure from foreign banks huge sums that sustained the colonial war effort. But as Adams knew too well, his family and other Americans suffered horribly due to inflation and scarcity in those early years. “Rampant inflation, shortages of nearly every necessity made the day-to-day struggle at home increasingly difficult,” McCullough relates. “ ‘A dollar was not worth what a quarter had been,’ Abigail [Adams]reported. ‘Our money will soon be as useless as blank paper.’ ”

3 This need was acute since the U.S. government lacked the power to tax or the means to collect it. Nor would the American people tolerate higher taxes, because of the unhappy experience with Britain. The leaders of the American revolution had led a political revolt against unfair taxes,thus they were not in a position to then raise taxes to pay for the war. Adams was neither an apologist for debt nor for inflation. He believed that having a national debt was a good thing because it created relationships with other nations that would help the infant nation survive and grow. In his prolific correspondence with Thomas Jefferson, Adams showed the sharp contrast between on the one hand wanting to create a constituency among financial powers for America’s national debt while on the other hand expressing his opposition to having private banker and banks. In fact, Adams advocated creating a single national bank to serve the needs of the country, with branches in the individual states. Adams wanted to prohibit the states from chartering banks themselves and to have one single, national institution, perhaps under public control.

Ron Chernow wrote in his excellent 2004 biography, Alexander Hamilton, that Adams viewed banking “as a confidence trick by which the rich exploited the poor.” He quoted Adams similarly saying that “every bank in America is an enormous tax upon the people for the profit of individuals,” suggesting that one of the more conservative founders of the United States would have preferred banks to be run as a giant collective, not-for -profit utility. Adams differed significantly from Alexander Hamilton on these issues, even though like Hamilton he also was of New England mercantilist stock. Hamilton was a great advocate of private banks and debt, and believed that that finance was the key both to state power and economic growth. Chernow confirms that Adams wanted one state bank with branches around the nation, but no private banks at all.

4 The charter of the Bank of North America lapsed in 1790 and two years later, the State of New York chartered The Bank of New York,which is the corporate predecessor of the company now known as Bank of New York/Mellon. Supported by New York’s powerful merchants, the bank was first organized in 1784 and was led by Hamilton, a New York lawyer and Revolutionary War general who became the first Treasury Secretary and a future leader of the United States. So important was the Bank of New York to the local economy that much of the region’s commercial activity was financed by this single institution for decades as the number of banks and thus competition grew slowly. The formation of the bank was not just a financial event, but a very significant political milestone as well that greatly elevated the power of New York.

5 There was no real money nor any payment system in existence for the country. All trade had been financed by English and other foreign banks up until the Revolutionary War. Now the United States had to create a new financial system to replace these relationships, a process that would take more than a century. The demise of the Bank of North America came as a political battle raged over whether the federal government should assume the debts incurred by the states and cities during the war against Britain. The final agreement from the southerners to support the assumption of state debts was tied to the compromise over moving the location of the capital city from New York to Philadelphia temporarily and eventually to an entirely new capital on the Potomac River to be called Washington. But this “compromise of 1790” engineered by Jefferson and Hamilton did not deal with the issue of a national bank.
The Bank of the United States
President George Washington chartered the First Bank of the United States in 1791. This was the government’s attempt at creating a permanent central bank of issue for the infant nation. Madison and Jefferson opposed the bank, but Adams ironically led a sizable majority in the Congress that favored the measure. McCullough described Adams’s views on banks and economics in John Adams :

Adams not only put his trust in land as the safest of investments, but agreed in theory with Jefferson and Madison that an agricultural society was inherently more stable than any other — not to say more virtuous. Like most farmers, he had strong misgivings about banks, and candidly admitted ignorance of “coin and commerce.” Yet he was as pleased by the rise of enterprise and prosperity as anyone.. . .

6 The First Bank of the United States had just a 20-year charter. While it was a bold and novel innovation, the bank only provided credit to established merchants. During the presidency of Thomas Jefferson, the agrarian and other interests not served by the Bank successfully pushed for the establishment of state-chartered institutions to serve the need for credit of a very rapidly growing nation. The state chartered banks also created alternative sources of political power in the states. The First Bank’s charter was not renewed due to the intense attacks by the advocates of Jeffersonian cheap money principles, who taking the lesson of King George III and his taxes, rightly feared that a “central bank” would be dominated by the central government. Even or, worse, it could be dominated by the bankers and merchants in New York and New England commercial centers such as Boston.

7 In 1811, the First Bank of the United States was resurrected bythe New York merchants who controlled it and chartered a new by the State of New York. Today the successor to that corporation is knownas Citibank N.A., the lead bank unit of Citigroup Inc. Now two of the largest banks in the new nation were located in New York. This point was not lost on representatives of the other states in the union and especially the Jeffersonian faction in the Congress, who represented agrarian interests dependent upon New York banks for trade credit The decision not to renew the First Bank of the United States left the United States to fight the war of 1812 against Britain with no means to finance the military struggle, much less the general operations of the federal government. Then Treasury Secretary Albert Gallatin,who was no advocate of public debt, made careful plans to borrow up to $20 million via the First Bank to finance the war, but instead was forced to seek loans from abroad because the First Bank was disolved.
Along with Hamilton, Gallatin was one of America’s first great financial geniuses, and a talented bond salesman to boot. He is memorialized by a large marker in front of the Treasury building in Washington, having also served as Commissioner for the Treaty of Ghent, as well as minister to both France and Great Britain. Because America’s position with the nations of Europe was that of debtor and former colonial possession ,Gallatin’s financial expertise was invaluable. His role recalled the invocation of Hamilton and also of Adams of the virtue of increasing the number of nations willing to hold the American government’s debt. As the nation reeled from the financial disaster of the War of 1812 ,a heated debate continued in the Congress regarding the need for a common currency and a new bank of issue for that currency. Notes issued by banks in New York, for example, could not be used at face value to settle debts in other states. The problem of the scarcity of adequate medium of exchange had existed since colonial times and often made it difficult for creditors to secure payment from customers, even if the customer wished to pay!
By 1814, the federal government itself was unable to pay its bills and was on the brink of financial collapse. Treasury Secretary Alexander Dallas was forced to suspend payments on the national debt in New England due to a lack of hard currency, a necessary move since all Treasury debts had to be paid in gold or silver. Following the capture of Washington by the British in that year and the default on the national debt, the United States was on the verge of financial and political dissolution.

8 The creation of the Second Bank of the United States was the American government’s next attempt at establishing a central bank, an effort that came only after significant political debate and negotiation. Many Republicans fought the resurrection of the Bank of the United States, fearing that its size and ability to do business across state lines would give it monstrous political power that would prove uncontrollable. There was also a strong suspicion by representatives of southern colonies that the Second Bank would be controlled by New York business and financial interests. But after the destruction of the Federalist Party following the War of 1812, the Republican majority in the Congress eventually chartered the Second Bank of the United States, albeit with very limited powers.

The first time the measure to create the Second Bank came up before the Senate in February 1811, it was defeated by the tie breakingvote of Vice President George Clinton of New York, who was empowered to cast the vote in his role as presiding officer of the Senate. He justified his action because the “tendency to consolidation” reflected by the proposal for a national bank seemed “a just and serious cause for alarm.”

9 The subsequent proposal to charter the Second Bank was no tpassed by the Congress until 1815, but then was vetoed by President Madison. A year later the Congress reconsidered the matter. This time,the bill passed the Congress and President Madison signed it into a law. The late Senator Robert Byrd, the West Virginia Democrat who was one of the longest serving members of the body, wrote in his1991 history of the Senate that the early debates regarding a central bank “were far from over and would surface again within the coming decades to alter significantly American political history.” Byrd also notes that coincident with the authorization for the Second Bank, the Congress for the first time dared to provide themselves with an annual salary. Previously, members of the Congress had been paid $6 per day or about $900 per year. War time inflation had greatly reduced the purchasing power of this per diem compensation, so the Congress voted itself a $1,500 per year annual salary. The decision was a political disaster and led to the defeat of two-thirds of the members of the House in the following election.

10 Ironically, many Republicans who supported the Second Bank considered themselves heirs to the libertarian legacy of Thomas Jefferson. When they finally supported the proposal, however, they were following the plan of Alexander Hamilton of New York and other supporters of a strong central government and the virtue of private banks for supporting economic expansion. These same Republicans, who essentially held a one-party lock on the Congress during that time, opposed funding for interstate roads and canals, and even the railroads, to help the struggling economy. The Republicans of that era doubted that the central government had the power under the Constitution to fund internal improvements, yet they did support the central bank. The fact was that the United States was changing as fast as it was growing and with that change was losing many of its libertarian attributes.
The nation’s founders, whether federalist or anti-federalist, found the process bewildering. Susan Dunn, professor of Humanities at WilliamsCollege, wrote: Jefferson and Madison’s Republican Party championed the enter prising middling people who lived by manual labor. But the year before he died, Jefferson felt lost in a nation that seemed over run by business, banking, religious revivalism, “monkish ignorance,”and anti-intellectualism. . .The Founders’ revolutionary words about equality, life, liberty, and the pursuit of happiness, along with their bold actions, had unleashed a democratic tide — one so strong that within a few decades manyof them found themselves disillusioned strangers living in anegalitarian, commercial society, a society they had unwittingly inspired but not anticipated.

11 Following the creation of the Second Bank of the United States,the American economy grew rapidly and more private banks were created, but the largely powerless federal government provided virtually no finance to support this growth by funding public improvements. The Congress preferred to leave this task instead to the cities and states which, naturally enough, turned to borrowing rather than taxation to finance economic growth. By 1840, the total debt of the states amounted to some$200 million, a vast sum by contemporary standards given that total U.S. gross domestic product or GDP was just $1.5billion. Much of this debt was issued by banks chartered by the states and was held by foreigners.

12 Though the Founders had made provision under the Commerce Clause of the Constitution for trade between the states free of tariff, there was no provision for a common currency or banking system tying the nation or even the individual states together. A similar problem is evident today in the European Union, which has a common currency, the euro, but no real economic integration. To provide some liquidity, state-chartered banks issued various forms of notes to the public in return for some future promise to pay in hard money— that is, gold. There was no common means of exchange nor any back stop for banks, which from time to time needed emergency infusions of funds. Panics occurred when public unease about particular financial institutions, companies, or the markets caused deposit runs on individual institutions that could grow into a general financial crisis that affected regions or even the entire country.
Crises of just this sort would become the hallmark of the U.S. economy for the next century. In 1809, for instance, the Farmer ’s Exchange Bank in Gloucester, Rhode Island, failed— one of the first significant bank failures in the United States. There was no Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation or Federal Reserve System to provide support or even organize the orderly liquidation of the bank. This task fell to state and local authorities. The demise of the Farmers Exchange Bank illustrated the types of financial schemes and public panics that would trouble the United States for decades to come.
Financial pioneer turned confidence man Andrew Dexter, Jr., writes: James Kamensky, “challenged the notion sof his Puritan ancestors by embarking on a wild career in real estate speculation, all financed by the string of banks he commandeered and the millions of dollars they freely printed. Upon this paper pyramid he built the tallest building in the United States, the Exchange Coffee House, a seven-story colossus in downtown Boston. But in early 1809, just as the exchange was ready for unveiling, the scheme collapsed. In Boston, the exchange stood as an opulent but largely vacant building, a symbol of monumental ambition and failure.”

13 A democratic society and a free market economy cannot exist without both great ambition and equally great failure. However, in the American experience, financial fraud and the tendency of politicians to use debt and paper money, rather than taxes raised with the active knowledge and consent of the voters, are common elements from colonial times right through to the present day. The collective failure of the Subprime Debt Crisis of 2008 is a larger reprise of the types of mini crises that occurred in the United States centuries before this period, crises that were limited by the relatively primitive state of communication and transportation.

State Debt Defaults

By the mid-1830s, the United States was in the midst of an economic boom characterized by inflation and speculation in public land sales, as well as road and canal projects. Many of these projects were badly needed but were often poorly conceived or entirely money losing investments. The several American states employed borrowing to finance needed improvements in order to avoid increasing taxes, and they even used sales of public land as a means to reduce debt. States along the Atlantic coast, where the economy was more developed and other sources of revenue such as tariffs were available, generally avoided costly property taxes, while less developed inland states could not sustain their governments with low property taxes and ran into financial trouble. The low or no property tax regimes in many western states are a legacy from the colonial period. This resulting unequal development became even more acute because the areas needing investment and often growing the most rapidly were precisely the western statesand territories that were starved for cash, not so much for investment but simply as a means of exchange.

14 In some of these states, the need for money was met in a primitive way by discovering and extracting gold and silver from the ground. During the 1830s speculation in land also flourished, with state chartered banks providing the paper to fuel the rising land values. This investment bubble had the effect of making the states look fiscally sound because of rising land prices. Some inland states even suspended property taxes due to supposed “profits” on bank shares, which often comprised a large portion of state investments. But the illusion of wealth and public revenue would fade with the Crisis of 1837, when many of these state banks failed, the equivalent of a nation’s central bank failing today. The Crisis of 1837 was the fourth and most stunning depression in the U.S. up to that time and the first financial crisis that was truly national in scope.

15 Between 1841and 1842, Florida, Mississippi, Arkansas, Michigan, Indiana, Illinois, Maryland, Pennsylvania, and Louisiana ran into serious fiscal problems and defaulted on interest payments. The first four states ultimately repudiated $13 million in debts, while others delayed and rescheduled their debts, in some cases years later. Alabama, Ohio, New York, and Tennessee narrowly avoided default during this period.
16 Because manystates used state-chartered banks as vehicles for borrowing, the public naturally became alarmed when the states ran into financial problems and public programs established during prosperous times could no longer be funded.

In the early 1800s, paper money issued by private, state-chartered banks generally traded at a steep discount to the face value when converted into precious metal, especially when it was issued by banks out-side of the state or local market where is was presented for payment. The notes used at that time generally promised to pay the bearer of the note a certain amount of physical gold or silver upon demand. The experience of banks failing was all too common for Americans in that period. There was deep suspicion in the marketplace when a note from a far away, state chartered bank was presented for payment. This was one reason that payments by and to state and federal agencies were done only in metal coins, not paper, and most contracts of the day like wise specified metal as the consideration. In the 1840s there was no telephone, no internet or even telegraph, and no local clearing house for banks to use to validate the authenticity of paper money issued by private banks. No surprise, then, that people in America and around the world preferred the security and certainty of gold and silver coins to paper money, even when the banks issuing the paper were backed by sovereign states. The suspicion of paper money was part of a broader suspicion of bankers and the economically powerful that flowed through most of American society.
Fleeing the religious and economic oppression of European society, Americans came to the New World for a fresh start and also an opportunity to live free of the stratified economic system of Europe, where even in the eighteenth century opportunities for advancement where few. Two centuries later, Western Europe remainsa far less dynamic market for new businesses and banks than the far younger U.S. market. Having money that was independent of political authority granted individuals a level of freedom from inflation that was a key part of the American ideal. Thus when the states began to falter financially, the cohesion of the entire nation was threatened. MostAmericans still identified themselves with their home state or town rather than as citizens of the United States. The political fact of union among the states had still not quite been settled because of the issue of slavery, but the overall fragility of the state run financial system contributed to the mounting political pressures on the nation.
As many states fell into default on their obligations during the1840s, repudiation of debt by state chartered banks was a hotly debated subject. In Arkansas, for example, Governor Archibald Yell explicitly urged debt repudiation in his 1842 message to the state legislature, which had created various state chartered banks as vehicles for funding state expenditures via borrowing. Such was the political uproar against banks and debt generally that the Arkansas state legislature passed a constitutional amendment in 1846 to liquidate all state chartered banks and prohibit the creation of any new banks in that state.

17 In Pennsylvania, starting in the mid-1830s the Commonwealth had chartered the United States Bank of Pennsylvania to cover fiscal short falls with debt. By 1839, the bank had defaulted on its obligations several times, but the response from the state legislature was to authorize more borrowing — a charming reminder that the present-day problems of federal deficits are not a new phenomenon. Despite rising deficits, the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania delayed making any meaningful fiscal reforms until the mid-1840s, by which time it was in default on its debt. In payment on the Commonweath’s $40 million in debt, its citizens were forced to take scrip bearing 6 percent interest because the state was broke.
18 In essence, Pennsylvania began to issue its own currency when it could not borrow or would not tax in sufficient amounts, a phenomenon that has reappeared in the United States in the twenty first century. As the states, most notably California, NewYork, and Illinois, struggle today under mountains of debt, unfunded pension obligations, and other expenses, issuing scrip has again become a popular alternative to tax increases. By 1840 many American states had gained a well deserved reputation in Europe for not repaying loans, although the U.S. government managed to service the federal debt in good order. From $75 millionin debt in 1791 to a peak of $100 million after the War of 1812, the Treasury paid down the federal debt to a mere $63 million in 1849. The U.S. government only paid down its debt once in the 1830s and then only by the accident of having a fiscal hawk named Andrew Jackson as President. In general fiscal restraint at the federal leve lwas the rule in the first century of the nation’s existence. Since the Federal government was not really involved in financing the economic growth of the nation, the remarkable stability of the federal debt contrasts with the spend thrift behavior of the states, counties and cities.

States such as Louisiana defaulted on loans, evaded their debts and delayed settlement with creditors until the twentieth century. Many foreign investors had believed, incorrectly, that the success of NewYork and other Atlantic states in building profitable canals and other commercial infrastructure would be repeated in the western and southern states and territories. The states themselves, especially in the south and west, seemed genuinely to have believed in the growth story. But in fact, looking at both the federal and state debts, the United States was a heavily indebted, rapidly developing country with neither organized financial markets nor even a common currency, and with a seriously dysfunctional central government. When the overheated economy and related financial crisis first started to boil over in the late-1830s, many European banks refused to lend further to the U.S. government or the various states, putting intense pressure on the small nation’s liquidity and political unity. This stress was relieved by the issuance of various types of fiat currency nd debt securities. In states such as Michigan and Indiana, the number of banks dwindled as first private institutions and eventually the state-chartered banks were wound up and closed. Regarding the financial situation in the Midwest, Willis Dunbar and George Maynoted in their book, Michigan: A History of the Wolverine State:

The speculation in Michigan land values of the early thirties, for example, was fantastic. The enormous note issues of the banks were obviously out of proportion to their resources. And the internal improvement programs adopted by the states were far beyond their ability to finance. The nation was importing, primarily from Great Britain, much more than it was exporting, and piling up a steadily mounting debt to British exporter sand manufacturers. A day of reckoning was inevitable.
19 Washington had not played a direct role in encouraging the accumulation of debt by the states. The national Congress refused to support any needed infrastructure improvements such as roads, canals,and port facilities, and the failure to make progress on the more basic issue of a national currency made the situation in the American financial markets inherently unstable. When added to this structural deficiency the renewed political ascendancy of Andrew Jackson and the proponents of the Jeffersonian, anti-federalist view of banks and currency, set the stage for not merely a crisis at the end of the 1830s— but for a catastrophe. When the crisis finally occurred, it turned out to be one of the worst economic and financial meltdowns seen in Western society up to that time and was compounded by unresolved political issues in Washington.

By the middle of 1837, unemployment was widespread and thousands of companies and banks had failed as the money supply contracted. This was due in part to events in Washington and, more important, to a growing antipathy toward banks and paper money among the public. Bad paper money was literally shunned by the mass population, an dthe issuance of bonds likewise dried up. By the start of the 1840s, only official U.S. minted coins and other types of specie were in broad circulation as Americans avoided privately issued paper notes and debt.
20 In effect, all of the float or credit in the economy was gone. Americans were forced to operate on cash or barter terms. Imagine leaving one’s house every morning needing to generate cash or goods via sales, services, or barter every day in order to survive. Most Americans in the 1840s lived with no access to cash or credit, except as provided by commercial exchanges with other people.

The Age of Andrew Jackson

Much of the terrible suffering experienced by the country in the late 1830s owed itself to one factor more than others: the rise a decade before of Andrew Jackson, the Tennessee war hero and political outsider. The arrival in Washington of this former Indian fighter and hero of the War of 1812, known as Old Hickory, signaled the end of the political dominance of Virginia in American politics. Jackson had lost his first bid for the presidency to John Quincy Adams of Massachusett sin the election of 1824, even though the Tennessee native won a larger proportion of the popular vote and also the plurality of votes in theElectoral College. But Jackson still lost the election. In the so called “Corrupt Bargain,” Senator Henry Clay, a Whig from Kentucky and long-time enemy of Jackson, threw his support to Adams in the vote in the U.S. House of Representatives, ensuring the election of Adams but also making the election of Jackson in 1828 a virtual certainty. Clay was appointed Secretary of State by President Adams as the quid pro quo for his support in the House. Clay himself sought the presidency on four occasions, but he repeatedly underestimated the popular support for the man who had defeated the British Army at New Orleans in spectacular fashion— albeit several weeks after theUnited States and Britain had agreed to peace. News traveled slowly in those days. Jackson’s succession to the presidency in 1828 followed an unremarkable political career, but was notable as the first time that a southerner swept into power in Washington on a wave of popular support. In a sense, Jackson was the first modern president because his victory marked the earliest instance where an American presidential candidate was actually chosen by the popular vote rather than as the result of the internal selection process dominated by the nation’s founders and their descendants. In fact, to complete the picture of upset, Jackson’s running mate, John C. Calhoun of South Carolina, had served as Vice President under the incumbent President John Quincy Adams.

The 1828 presidential campaign was a vicious affair, as might be expected when an established order is ended. Jackson was opposed by most of the nation’s newspapers, bankers, businessmen, and manufacturers, especially in the Northeast, but still won 56 percent of the popular vote in 1828. Thus began the Jacksonian Age.
21 The period of Andrew Jackson’s presidency was in political terms one of the most difficult in American history, with northern and southern interests competing with new western states for political advantage, even to the point of secession from the Union. Against thi scontentious political backdrop, Jackson and Congress fough tbitterly over many issues, but none of more consequence for the economy andthe U.S. financial system than the renewal of the Second Bank of the United States. With its charter set to expire in 1836, Jackson began in 1830 to attack the Second Bank and proposed instead that a new government bank be set up as an arm of the Treasury. The Whigs led by Clay decided to reauthorize the Second Bank early and were able to get the measure passed by both houses of Congress during the summer of 1832, but the legislation was vetoed by President Jackson on July 10, 1832. He objected to the bank as being unconstitutional, aristocratic,and, most important, because it failed to establish a sound and uniform national currency. The lengthy written discussion of President Jackson’s objections to the Second Bank is one of the great libertarian statements against big government and the power of moneyed interests in American history. It also predicted many of the problems caused by the creation of the Federal Reserve System 80 years later. The final paragraph of the Jackson veto message reads: Experience should teach us wisdom. Most of the difficulties our Government now encounters and most of the dangers which impend over our Union have sprung from an abandonment of the legitimate objects of Government by our nationa llegislation, and the adoption of such principles as are embodied in this act. Many of our rich men have not been content with equal protection and equal benefits, but have besought us to make them richer by act of Congress. By attempting to gratify their desires we have in the results of our legislation arrayed section against section, interest against interest, and man against man, in a fearful commotion which threatens to shake the foundations of our Union. It is time to pause in our career to review our principles, and if possible revive that devoted patriotism and spirit of compromise which distinguished the sages of the Revolution and the fathers of our Union. If we cannot at once, in justice to interests vested under improvident legislation, make our Government what it ought to be, we can at least take a stand against all new grants of monopolies and exclusive privileges, against any prostitution of our Government to the advancement of the few at the expense of the many, and in favor of compromise and gradual reform in our code of laws and system of political economy.

22 Even then, the supporters of a central bank were numerous and out-spoken. Ralph C. H. Catterall, the great historian of the Second Bank, said of Jackson’s veto: Jackson and his supporters committed an offense against the nation when they destroyed the bank. The magnitude and enormity of that offense can only be faintly realized, but one is certainly justified in saying that few greater enormities are chargeable to politicians than the destruction of the Bank of the United States.

23 But Claude G. Bowers, a historian sympathetic to Jackson, defended his action: Even among the ultra-conservatives of business, the feeling was germinating that Jackson was not far wrong in the conclusion that a moneyed institution possessing the power to precipitate panics to influence governmental action, was dangerous to the peace, prosperity, and liberty of the people.
24 The veto of the reauthorization of the Second Bank was not the end of the matter, however. The debate over the bank and the nature of money played a significant role in the 1832 landslide re-election victory of Jackson against the party formerly known as the Whigs ,and now called the National Republican Party under Henry Clay.

That debate would continue for years as the Senate censured Jackson for his efforts to remove the government’s funds on deposit with theSecond Bank. But Jackson was adamant that the bank had to go and he was willing to let his political fate be governed by that one issue. In September 1831, President Jackson told Treasury Secretary Louis McLane that he did not intend to pull down the bank merely to set up a new one.
25 Despite Jackson’s strong view on the matter, he could not disregard many voices, even in his own cabinet, who supported renewing the charter of the Second Bank. Yet Jackson remained strong in his conviction that the central bank was a monster that was unconstitutional and concentrated power “in the hands of so few persons irresponsible to the electorate,” wrote Marquis James. The great biographer of Jackson continued: “Nor was this all. With deep and moving conviction, the message gave expression to a social philosophy calculated to achieve a better way of life for the common man.”

26 In one of the examples of how personal political battles contributedto the economic problems of the nation, Nicholas Biddle, the head of the Second Bank and a foe of Jackson, fought the President to the last in defense of the Second Bank. When Jackson gave notice that the Treasury would no longer deposit its cash in the Second Bank, Biddle started to withdraw funds deposited with state banks around the country in an effort to discredit Jackson. Specifically, Biddle would present notes drawn upon state banks and demand payment in gold, a move that had the effect of draining liquidity from those communities and generating enormous anger at Biddle and the Treasury. So great was the antagonism generated by Biddle’s attempt to hurt theU.S. economy (and thereby wound President Jackson politically) that almost a century later, when the U.S. Congress debated the creation of the Federal Reserve System, the state bankers still referred to the predations of Nicholas Biddle and the Second Bank as a reason for opposing the legislation. Biddle was one of the great financial minds of the early days of the United States, but he was also a formidable political operator who was not afraid to use the media and lobbying on Capitol Hill to defend his institution. Together with Clay and other supporters of the Second Bank, they mounted a vigorous but ultimately futile defense.

The economy eventually slowed and the financial markets began to weaken as the Second Bank withdrew hard currency from theeconomy, but President Jackson struck back. In the fall of 1833, he directed that the Treasury with draw its deposits from the Second Bank, a move which began his famous confrontation with Henry Clay and the Senate, and doomed the Second Bank of the United States to extinction. Both Clay and Biddle, it seems, believed that hard economic times would help their battle with Jackson and the Democrats, who used the fight over the bank to win the 1832 election. Both men miscalculated badly and Jackson won re-election with 76 percent of the vote, the largest margin since George Washington and James Madison. The pro- Jackson forces likewise prevailed in the 1834 mid-term contest— even as Biddle did his best to “bring the country to its knees and with it Andrew Jackson.”

27 The political battle over the Second Bank of the United States between Clay and Jackson distracted the country at avery crucial juncture of American history. The United States would go nearly three quarters of a century without a central bank of issue for its currency until Congress established the Federal Reserve System in 1913, but the immediate impact was the most severe economic crisis the nation had seen since its beginnings. When the Second Bank closed its doors in March of 1836, the United States was left with no common currency and what credit the bank had provided to the economy was withdrawn. There was no central provider of liquidity for banks, nor any deposit insurance. Only the private shareholders of state-chartered banks were available to supportthe liquidity and soundness of private depositories. This lack of a currency system and of a mechanism for managing the liquidity needs of banks had been felt earlier in the century, when the Second Bank of theUnited States called in its loans in 1819 and triggered the Panic of that same year in the ensuing scramble for liquidity. But as with most public issues, the national Congress was largely indifferent to the needs of the nation, preferring instead to defend regional and states’rights from threats, real and imagined. The defeat of the Second Bank of the United States was not the end of Jackson’s reactionary agenda. President Jackson refused to allow the resources of the federal government to be used for financing the construction of roads and canals, and instead retired the national deb tand distributed the surplus accumulated in the Treasury. By attacking the Second Bank and at the same time pursuing a very conservative fiscal policy, Jackson created the circumstances for the Great Panic of 1837. Since there was no central bank, the withdrawal of public debtby the Treasury amounted to a deflationary reduction in the nation’s money supply. In addition, the retirement of the federal government’s debt encouraged states and their banks to issue paper currency in large amounts, which fueled land purchases and speculation. Done in the midst of a growing speculative bubble based on land purchases, the Jacksonian fiscal measures helped to reduce liquidity in banks and worsen the lack of credit in an already cash strapped society. Yet even with what amounted to a tight money policy from Washington over eight years of Jackson’s presidency, the speculation that gripped the nation during the early part of the 1830s was just coming to a boil when Jackson left office in the early part of 1837. As one of his last official acts, Jackson issued the Specie Circular, another hard money and anti-debt initiative, which required that purchases of government land be paid for in coin or specie rather than bank paper. By requiring that payments for taxes, duties, and/or the purchase of federal land be made in gold coins, the Treasury was in practical terms draining reserves from the banking system and causing it to shrink. This compounded the fact that the Second Bank of the United States under Biddle had been calling in its loans. This third fiscal action by Jackson, following the closure of the Second Bank and the retirement of the government’s debt, was implemented by his successor, President Martin Van Buren, and further exacerbated the liquidity crisis in the United States.

The Panic of 1837

As Jackson travelled home to Nashville in the spring of 1837, he observed that bank notes were trading at a steep discount to face value and farmers were paying 30 percent for credit— all the results of his earlier executive orders. Some bankers, traders, and particularly land speculators clamored for President Van Buren to “strike down the iniquitous Specie Circular ” requiring that hard money be used in the purchase of federal land or payment of federal taxes. But Jackson wrote to Van Buren: My dear sir, the Treasury order is popular with the people everywhere I have passed. But all the speculators, and those largely indebted, want more paper. The more it depreciates the easier they can pay their debts. . .Check the paper mania and the republic is safe and your administration must end in triumph.

28 Unfortunately for President Van Buren, Jackson’s devotion to hard money was at odds with the needs of a growing nation. With the drain of currency caused by Jackson’s Treasury order, as he called the Specie Circular, and the resultant increased stress on the economy, a lack of confidence in the state banks was wide spread around the United States. The resulting financial crisis in 1837 caused many banks to fail over a period of several years. This panic was followed by a sharp economic contraction around the world that would last until 1841. To no surprise, President Van Buren was defeated in the next general election. One of the more significant and mischievous contributions that President Van Buren made to the country’s financial development was the creation of an independent Department of the Treasury. In 1837, in a special message to Congress, President Van Buren proposed that the finances of the federal government be formally “divorced” from those of the state chartered banks. This proposal caused considerable political controversy. The Congress passed The Independent Treasury Act of 1840 and then repealed it in 1841. In 1846 Congress adopted the same proposal again. The official goal of the legislation was two fold: to ensure the independence of the banks in the country and also to support the value of the currency. Neither of these goals were met. In practical terms, the Treasury became a “bank of issue” and a de facto central bank, refusing to accept notes issued by private banks and issuing its own notes in competition with the state banks. The creation of the Independent Treasury had a negative impact on the U.S. economy by draining reserves from the banking system and effectively reducing the supply of money available to Americans for commerce.

By segregating the gold reserves of the government in the Treasury’s own vaults and not keeping these funds on deposit with private banks, the Independent Treasury served to exacerbate the structural deficiencies in the U.S. economy for decades afterward. In the years up through the Civil War and there after, the fiscal operations of the Treasury were an important factor in the ebb and flow of the supply of money available to support the American economy. By the 1840s, hundreds of banks existed in America and all of them were printing private bank notes and making loans based solely on their own resources, mostly gold and foreign currency held as reserves. With the demise of the Second Bank of the United States in 1836, only state-chartered banks existed and the United States remained dependent upon limited minting of specie, foreign currency, and barter as means of exchange. During this period, known as the Free Banking Era, state bank chartering standards were not very stringent,and many new banks were formed and failed, but the free banking era was also one of great expansion in the U.S. economy. The Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco described the period: State Bank notes of various sizes, shapes, and designs were in circulation. Some of them were relatively safe and exchanged for par value and others were relatively worthless as speculators and counterfeiters flourished. By 1860, an estimated 8,000 different state banks were circulating “wildcat” or “broken” bank notes in denominations from ½ cent to $20,00. The nickname “wildcat” referred to banks in mountainous and other remote regions that were said to be more accessible to wild cats than customers, making it difficult for people to redeem these notes. The “broken” bank notes took their name from the fre-quency with which some of the banks failed, or went broke.

29 In reaction to the collapse of the Second Bank of the United States, New York became the first state to adopt an insurance plan for bank obligations. Between 1829 and 1866, five other states adopted similar deposit insurance schemes in an attempt to stabilize their banking systems. But these modest early attempts at enhancing bank safety and soundness were not effective in controlling the emission of paper currency and forestalling liquidity crises such as the great Panic of 1837.

The Congress authorized a Third Bank of the United States in 1841, but President John Tyler vetoed the measure, leading to rioting outside the White House by members of his own Whig Party.
30 The idea of a central bank issuing paper money was sufficiently popular in Washington and among the business circles that exerted influence in the lobbies of the Capitol. But Tyler, who succeeded to the presidency upon the death of William Henry Harrison, who died after just a month in office, vetoed the legislation creating a Third Bank of the United States twice during his term on states’ rights grounds. The defeat of the Third Bank of the United States also marked yet another political defeat for the Republican leader Henry Clay. As before, Clay had personally championed the idea of a central bank, and as before, he had lost. With the death of Harrison, a retired general and respected member of the Whig Party, Clay believed that a new central bank was assured. But the populist opposition to the idea of a central bank, or even any banks at all, was too strong. President Tyler instead used the bank issue to assert his political independence from Clay and the Whig leaders in Congress. When Tyler ’s Whig cabinet resigned over the veto of the bank legislation, Tyler was left with only the venerable Daniel Webster as Secretary of State. Webster knew the political and economic issues in the debate over a central bank as well as any member of the Senate. H ehad opposed the First Bank in 1814, but then helped John C. Calhoun fashion a compromise that eventually passed by the Congress. Years later, acting in his capacity as a lawyer, Webster represented the SecondBank before the Supreme Court in McCulloch v. Maryland , when the high court upheld the implied power of Congress to charter a federa lbank and rejected the right of states to tax federal agencies. The ruling in McCulloch v. Maryland also recognized the implied powers clause of the Constitution, an evil event that greatly expanded the power of the Congress generally and especially regarding money and debt. “A disordered currency is one of the greatest political evils,” Webster is reported to have said in one of the great arguments ever made by an American for sound money. He continued: A sound currency is an essential and indispensible security for the fruits of industry and honest enterprise. Every man of property or industry, every man who desires to preserve what he honestly possesses, or to obtain what he can honestly earn, has a direct interest in maintaining a safe circulating medium; such a medium shall be a real and substantial representative of property, not liable to vibrate with opinions, not subject to be blown up or blown down by the breath of speculation, but made stable and secure by its immediate relation to that whicht he whole world regards as permanent value.

31 Tyler and Webster appointed a new cabinet comprised of southerners and without any supporters of Clay, whose political era essentially ended with this last battle in the nineteenth century over a central bank. As discussed in the next chapter, Washington remained largely oblivious to the financial problems facing the nation’s economy until the Civil War. Tyler’s advocacy for states’ rights also meant a strong resistance against using federal revenue to bail out the states from their debts. Clay was particularly keen on giving the new, heavily indebted western states the right to revenue from public land sales, a measure Tyler refused to support. Even though Martin van Buren was defeatedin 1840, the influence of Jackson and the public’s strong distrust of banks generally gave President Tyler the will to oppose a measure strongly supported by his Whig Party. The Whigs subsequently expelled Tyler. When he left office in 1845, the government received taxes and paid interest in specie, but the rest of the economy was fueled by the rapid growth in paper currency that was, to one degree or another, convertible into gold or silver.

The Gold Rush

The debt crises in the various states of the mid-1840s would quickly be forgotten in 1848 when gold was discovered in California. With in months of the discovery, tens of thousands of people were headed west, overland across the Great American desert, by sea around Cape Horn , or through the jungles of Panama and Nicaragua. The tiny Spanish port of San Francisco was turned almost overnight into a boom town of some 25,000 inhabitants and continued to grow to bursting and beyond with the vast influx of humanity from all corners of the globe.

By 1870, the population of San Francisco had reached nearly 150,000 ,but this statistic only begins to describe the huge movement of people and resources from the Eastern United States to the other side of the continent. So great was the influx of humanity into California that the territory was organized into a state, held a constitutional convention,and petitioned Congress for statehood in less than two years. California was admitted to the Union as a free state via the Compromise of 1850, the fastest process of accession to statehood of any U.S. state. The production of gold from the mines of California served to stimulate economic activity in the United States and around the world ,resulting in increased imports from Great Britain and other nations, and a steady increase in prices. The influx of new supplies of gold increased the money supply of the United States which, by definition, was still governed by the amount of gold in circulation. But a great deal of gold would eventually leave the United States for destinations such as Britain and other countries to pay for imported goods. More important, the Gold Rush pushed wages and prices higher, even after the initial surge of migration from 1848 to 1852 slowed. Long after the allure of the Gold Rush had faded, wages and prices in distant California remained higher than in the rest of the United States.
32 But despite the idealized view of the Gold Rush, the fact was that most of the 49ers who made the trip to California did not become rich. Making the trip to California to pan for gold was akin to playing the lottery, which meant that the vast majority of participants were losers in financial and human terms. A significant portion of the participants in the Gold Rush died attempting to reach California or due to violence in the gold fields. Those who ventured north to the Yukonin pursuit of gold faced even steeper odds, as described so beautifully by Jack London in books such as Call of the Wild and White Fang. The more enduring, long-term impact of the Gold Rush was to create an alternative to the Puritan, conservative notion of hard work and saving that characterized the early days of the United States with the“American dream” of instant wealth achieved quickly via opportunism and speculation. More than simply a description of the social and economic changes that occurred in California as a result of the discovery of gold, the Gold Rush and eventually the American dream became synonymous with the ability to get a fresh start in life and, with hard work and most important, luck, earn enormous wealth. From the 49ers in the 1850s to oil prospectors half a century later to movie producers and technology start-up companies in the twentieth century, the get-rich-quick image of the American dream became an important fixture in the nation’s psyche that would color public attitudes toward money, debt, and the role of government. The American dream was not merely about helping all Americans meet their wants and needs, but to meet them immediately. As H.W. Brands wrote inhis classic work, The Age of Gold:

“We are on the brink of the age of gold,” Horace Greeley had said in 1848. The reforming editor wrote better than he knew. The discovery [of gold] at Coloma commenced a revolution that rumbled across the oceans and continents to the ends of the earth, and echoed down the decades to the dawn of the third millennium. The revolution manifested itself demographically, in drawing hundreds of thousands of people to California; politically, in propelling America along the path to the Civil War; economically, in spurring the construction of the transcontinental railroad. But beyond everything else, the Gold Rush established a new template for the American dream. America had always been the land of promise, but never had the promise been so decidedly— so gloriously— material. The new dream held out the hope that anyone could have what everyone wants: respite from toil, security in old age, a better life for one’s children.

33 The Rise of Bank Clearinghouses Another significant development in the history of the American monetary system prior to the Civil War that deserves attention is the creation of private clearinghouses around the country to help banks manage their payments and liquidity. In 1853, when the Clearing House Association began operations in New York, it was located in a single room in the basement of 14 Wall Street. Created even before theNational Banking Act was enacted by the Congress a decade later, the New York Clearing House was a mechanism designed to reduce the cost of clearing claims between banks in the same city. Twice a day, the banks would total their debits and credits with each member of the clearinghouse, and then settle the difference in cash— or special notes drawn on the clearing member. This basic, non-specie extension of credit between the members of the association was another response to the demise of the Second Bank of the United States and effectively made the clearinghouse a quasi central bank to its members.

34 The advent of clearinghouse models in many cities around theUnited States during the mid-1840s and 1850s was an important development, a uniquely American model of mutual risk taking and liquidity sharing that provided an important degree of efficiency to the financial markets without government support. But the credit that could be provided to members was limited by the willingness of the other party to take the special currency, created for members of the association, known as “loan certificates.” The clearinghouse in one city did not yet interconnect with its counterpart in another city. This left the movement of credit from one market to another, one city to another, to the limited channels of correspondence between individual banks. But the fact of the private bank clearinghouses provided an important source of liquidity for banks that was not available from other sources. JP Morgan, it must be said, was not a member of the New York Clearing House until well into the twentieth century and instead cleared all of its transactions with other banks “over its own counters,” in the market vernacular of the day. This essentially meant that the House of Morgan wanted the other banks in the New York market to stand in line like everyone else in the lobby of JP Morgan. It also meant that the most prominent and creditworthy bank in the UnitedStates was not part of the collective clearing mechanism in the most important city in the country and thus only extended credit to other banks on its own terms. While the clearinghouse model served to provide liquidity to member banks during the crises of the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries, it was not nearly a sufficient solution to the problems of liquidity that dogged the U.S. markets during economic downturns. There was always a competitive aspect to the relationship among clearinghouse members, to paraphrase Charles Goodhart, a chief economic adviser to the Bank of England. The case of the Building & Loan Society in the Frank Capra film It ’s a Wonderful Life featuring James Stewart epitomizes the example. When a solvent bank required short term liquidity support, the other members of the clearinghouse might be tempted to with hold their aid and thereby kill a competitor. Goodhart notes, however, that the politically controlled central bankis not the solution to this problem of competitive conflict, since the prejudices and conflicts of the political world are far worse than even those found in the banking sector. The political corruption and incompetence displayed by the Fed and Treasury during the financial crisis of 2008 seemingly supports Goodhart’s judgment. It is, after all, the legal and regulatory limitations imposed by government that created the problems of liquidity and risk with which private banks must contend, argues Richard Timberlake of CATO Institute: Governmental dispensation of monopoly powers over note issue, governmental imposition of legal reserve requirements, governmental prohibition of post notes and option clauses, governmental prohibitions of interstate and (often) intrastate branching— insum, governmental interference with all of the machinery of banking that would have allowed banking to function as free enterprise, was what made the problem that the clearinghouse institution successfully abated.

35 The clearinghouse model in the United States was an attempt by private industry to address the problems of liquidity and payments tha tburdened the young country in the mid -1800s. Unfortunately, the already fragile U.S. financial system would next be thrown into the stress and uncertainty of the Civil War, a terrible period that altered the nation’s financial system forever.

Wednesday, January 5, 2011

Corporate Self-Regulation


How did that work out?

By Barry Rithholtz

Representative Darrell Issa of California recently sent letters to more than 150 companies, trade groups and research organizations asking them to identify federal regulations that they wanted to see repealed or rewritten.

This is a splendid idea, as we have learned this past decade. No one is in a better position to know what rules are restraining economic recovery than the companies that have to live under their restrictions. Indeed, what could be more intelligent than allowing entities whose fiduciary obligations are to maximize profits by any legal means available to rewrite their own rules?

Let’s see how that has worked out recently:

1. Leverage: Large iBanks wanted to determine their own leverage regulations. They petitioned the SEC to have those old 1970s era Net Capitalization rules tossed out,]. The government agreed, and the 5 largest banks were allowed to determine their own leverage rules . . . How did that work out?

2. Deepwater Oil Drilling: The Oil Industry has been allowed not only to write their own regulations as to the safety requirements for offshore deep water drilling, but they were also the ones in charge of enforcing these rules! . . . How did that work out?

3. Derivatives: Underwriters didn’t want to be bothered with pesky rules that had reserve requirements that limited underwriting, counter-party disclosures, exchange trading rules, capital requirements, indeed, any oversight whatsoever . . . How did that work out?

4. Lend-to-securitize non bank mortgage underwriters: Rules were proposed both at the Federal Reserve level and in California (where most were located), but the decision was made to allow these “Financial innovators” top self regulate . . . How did that work out?

5. Glass Steagall: The repeal of legislation that kept Wall Street risk taking separate from Main Street banking was a decade prior to a Derivatives collapse, frozen credit market and the worst recession since the great depression . . . How did that work out?

6. Federal Pre-emption: Various states had regulations in effect to prevent predatory lending. Responding to Bank requests, the regulations were removed by Federal mandate (so much for states rights) to allow “unfettered banking.” . . . How did that work out?

7. Abdication of traditional lending standards: Federal Reserve enforcement of lending rules requiring lenders to verify the borrowers ability to repay loans were ignored. This allowed banks to sell products such as 2/28 ARMs, Interest-Only Loans, and Negative Amortization mortgages without any oversight . . . How did that work out?

The list goes on and on. We could talk about Food safety, products that strangle infants, unsafe effluent discharges into drinking water, etc. Suffice it to say that self-regulation by corporate entities has been a complete and unmitigated disaster.

However, if you are interested in dropping to your knees to raisie money from corporations, wrapping your lips around that purple phallus spurting campaign contributions, whoring out the electorate so you can reap the benefits of your elected positions, then OF COURSE you ask corporate entities how they want to be regulated.

The Romans had a punishment for corrupt politicians: Cut off their noses, tie them in a burlap sack nude with a feral wildcat, throw the entire kit & kaboodle into the river. The Romans were onto something . . .

Monday, January 3, 2011

2011 – THE YEAR OF CATCH-22


By The Burning Platform Blog

Quantitative Easing, silver, State budgets, Tea Party, Unemployment, wheat.

As I began to think about what might happen in 2011, the classic Joseph Heller novel Catch 22 kept entering my mind. Am I sane for thinking such a thing, or am I so insane that asking this question proves that I’m too rational to even think such a thing? In the novel, the “Catch 22″ is that “anyone who wants to get out of combat duty isn’t really crazy”. Hence, pilots who request a fitness evaluation are sane, and therefore must fly in combat. At the same time, if an evaluation is not requested by the pilot, he will never receive one (i.e. they can never be found “insane”), meaning he must also fly in combat. Therefore, Catch-22 ensures that no pilot can ever be grounded for being insane – even if he were. The absurdity is captured in this passage:

There was only one catch and that was Catch-22, which specified that a concern for one’s own safety in the face of dangers that were real and immediate was the process of a rational mind. Orr was crazy and could be grounded. All he had to do was ask; and as soon as he did, he would no longer be crazy and would have to fly more missions. Orr would be crazy to fly more missions and sane if he didn’t, but if he was sane, he had to fly them. If he flew them, he was crazy and didn’t have to; but if he didn’t want to, he was sane and had to. Yossarian was moved very deeply by the absolute simplicity of this clause of Catch-22 and let out a respectful whistle. “That’s some catch, that Catch-22,” he observed. “It’s the best there is,” Doc Daneeka agreed. - Catch 22 – Joseph Heller

The United States and its leaders are stuck in their own Catch 22. They need the economy to improve in order to generate jobs, but the economy can only improve if people have jobs. They need the economy to recover in order to improve our deficit situation, but if the economy really recovers long term interest rates will increase, further depressing the housing market and increasing the interest expense burden for the US, therefore increasing the deficit. A recovering economy would result in more production and consumption, which would result in more oil consumption driving the price above $100 per barrel, therefore depressing the economy. Americans must save for their retirements as 10,000 Baby Boomers turn 65 every day, but if the savings rate goes back to 10%, the economy will collapse due to lack of consumption. Consumer expenditures account for 71% of GDP and need to revert back to 65% for the US to have a balanced sustainable economy, but a reduction in consumer spending will push the US back into recession, reducing tax revenues and increasing deficits. You can see why Catch 22 is the theme for 2011.

It seems the consensus for 2011 is that the economy will grow 3% to 4%, two million new jobs will be created, corporate profits will rise, and the stock market will rise another 10% to 15%. Sounds pretty good. The problem with this storyline is that it is based on a 2010 that gave the appearance of recovery, but was a hoax propped up by trillions in borrowed funds. On January 1, 2010 the National Debt of the United States rested at $12.3 trillion. On December 31, 2010 the National Debt checked in at $13.9 trillion, an increase of $1.6 trillion.

The Federal Reserve Balance Sheet totaled $2.28 trillion on January 1, 2010. Today, it stands at $2.46 trillion, an increase of $180 billion.

Over this same time frame, the Real GDP of the U.S. has increased approximately $350 billion, and is still below the level reached in the 4th Quarter of 2007. U.S. politicians and Ben Bernanke spent almost $1.8 trillion, or 13% of GDP, in one year to create a miniscule 2.7% increase in GDP. This is reported as a recovery by the mainstream corporate media mouthpieces. On September 18, 2008 the American financial system came within hours of a total meltdown, caused by Wall Street mega-banks and their bought off political cronies in Washington DC. The National Debt on that day stood at $9.7 trillion. The US Government has borrowed $4.2 since that date, a 43% increase in the National Debt in 27 months. The Federal Reserve balance sheet totaled $963 billion in September 2008 and Bernanke has expanded it by $1.5 trillion, a 155% increase in 27 months. Most of the increase was due to the purchase of toxic mortgage backed securities from their Wall Street masters.

Real GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2008 was $13.2 trillion. Real GDP in the 3rd quarter of 2010 was $13.3 trillion.

Think about these facts for one minute. Your leaders have borrowed $5.7 trillion from future unborn generations and have increased GDP by $100 billion. The financial crisis, caused by excessive debt creation by Wall Street and ridiculously low interest rates set by the Federal Reserve, 30 years in the making, erupted in 2008. The response to a crisis caused by too much debt and interest rates manipulated too low was to create an immense amount of additional debt and reduce interest rates to zero. The patient has terminal cancer and the doctors have injected the patient with more cancer cells and a massive dose of morphine. The knowledge about how we achieved the 2010 “recovery” is essential to understanding what could happen in 2011.

Confidence Game
Ben Bernanke, Timothy Geithner, Barack Obama, the Wall Street banks, and the corporate mainstream media are playing a giant confidence game. It is a desperate gamble. The plan has been to convince the population of the US that the economy is in full recovery mode. By convincing the masses that things are recovering, they will begin to spend and buy stocks. If they spend, companies will gain confidence and start hiring workers. More jobs will create increasing confidence, reinforcing the recovery story, and leading to the stock market soaring to new heights. As the market rises, the average Joe will be drawn into the market and it will go higher. Tax revenues will rise as corporate profits, wages and capital gains increase. This will reduce the deficit. This is the plan and it appears to be working so far. But, Catch 22 will kick in during 2011.

Retail sales are up 6.5% over 2009 as consumers have been convinced to whip out one of their 15 credit cards and buy some more iPads, Flat screen TVs, Ugg boots and Tiffany diamond pendants. Consumer non-revolving debt for autos, student loans, boats and mobile homes is at an all-time high as the government run financing arms of GMAC and Sallie Mae have issued loans to anyone that can fog a mirror with their breath. Total consumer credit card debt has been flat for 2010 as banks have written it off as fast as consumers can charge it. The savings rate has begun to fall again as Americans are being convinced to live today and not worry about tomorrow. Of course, the current savings rate of 5.9% would be 2% if the government was not dishing out billions in transfer payments. Wages have declined by $127 billion from the 3rd Quarter of 2008, while government transfer payments for unemployment and other social programs have increased by $441 billion, all borrowed.

Both the government and its citizens are living the old adage:

Everybody wants to get to heaven, but no one wants to practice what is required to get there.

The government politicians and bureaucrats promise to cut unsustainable spending as soon as the economy recovers. The economy has been recovering for the last 6 quarters, according to GDP figures, but there are absolutely no government efforts to cut spending. This is proof that politicians always lie. It will never be the right time to cut spending. Another faux crisis will be used as a reason to continue unfunded spending increases. Having consumer spending account for 70% of GDP is unbalanced and unsustainable. Everyone knows that consumer spending needs to revert back to 65% of GDP and the Savings Rate needs to rise to 8% or higher in order to ensure the long-term fiscal health of the country. Savings and investment are what sustain countries over time. Borrowing and spending is a recipe for failure and bankruptcy. The facts are that consumer expenditures as a percentage of GDP have actually risen since 2007 and Congress and Obama just cut payroll taxes in an effort to encourage Americans to spend even more borrowed money. Catch 22 is alive and well.

The first half of 2011 is guaranteed to give the appearance of recovery. The lame-duck Congress ”compromise” will pump hundreds of billions of borrowed dollars into the economy. The continuation of unemployment benefits for 99 weeks (supposedly to help employment) and the 2% payroll tax cut will goose consumer spending. Ben Bernanke and his QE2 stimulus for poor Wall Street bankers is pumping $75 billion per month ($3 to $4 billion per day) directly into the stock market. Since Ben gave Wall Street the all clear signal in late August, the NASDAQ has soared 25%. Despite the fact that there are 362,000 less Americans employed than were employed in August 2010, the mainstream media will continue to tout the jobs recovery. The goal of all these efforts is to boost confidence and spending. Everything being done by those in power has the seeds of its own destruction built in. The Catch 22 will assert itself in the 2nd half of 2011.

Housing Catch 22
Ben Bernanke, an Ivy League PhD who should understand the concept of standard deviation, missed a 3 standard deviation bubble in housing as ironically pointed out by a recent Dallas Federal Reserve report.

Home prices still need to fall 23%, just to revert to its long-term mean. That is a fact that even Bernanke should be able to grasp (maybe not). Anyone who argues that housing has bottomed and will resume growth either has an agenda (NAR) or is a clueless dope (Bernanke). A new perfect storm is brewing for housing in 2011 and will not subside until late 2012. You may have thought those bad mortgages had been all written off. You would be wrong. There will be in excess of $200 billion of adjustable rate mortgages that reset between 2011 and 2012, with in excess of $125 billion being the dreaded Alt-A mortgages. This is a recipe for millions of new foreclosures.

According to the Dallas Fed, in addition to the 3.9 million homes on the market, there is a shadow inventory of 6 million homes that will be coming on the market due to foreclosure. About 3.6 million housing units, representing 2.7% of the total housing stock, are vacant and being held off the market. These are not occasional-use homes visited by people whose usual residence is elsewhere but units that are vacant year-round. Presumably, many are among the 6 million distressed properties that are listed as at least 60 days delinquent, in foreclosure or foreclosed in banks’ inventories.

The coup de grace for the housing market will be Ben Bernake’s ode to Catch 22. In his November 4 OP-ED piece he had this to say about his $600 billion QE2:

“Easier financial conditions will promote economic growth. For example, lower mortgage rates will make housing more affordable and allow more homeowners to refinance.” – Housing sage Ben Bernanke

On the day Bernanke wrote these immortal words 30 Year Mortgage rates were 4.2%. Today, two months later, they stand at 5.0%. This should be a real boon to refinancing and the avalanche of mortgage resets coming down the pike. It seems that money printing and a debt financed “recovery” leads to higher long-term interest rates. The more convincing the recovery, the higher interest rates will go. The higher interest rates go, the further the housing market will drop. The further housing prices drop, the number of underwater homeowners will grow to 30%. This will lead to more foreclosures. Approximately 50% of all the assets on banks books are backed by real estate. Billions in bank losses are in the pipeline. Do you see the Catch 22 in Bernanke’s master plan? The Dallas Fed sees it:

This unease highlights the housing market’s fragility and suggests there may be no pain-free path to the eventual righting of the market. No perfect solution to the housing crisis exists. The latest price declines will undoubtedly cause more economic dislocation. As the crisis enters its fifth year, uncertainty is as prevalent as ever and continues to hinder a more robust economic recovery. Given that time has not proven beneficial in rendering pricing clarity, allowing the market to clear may be the path of least distress. - Dallas Fed

Quantitative Easing Catch 22
Ben Bernanke’s quantitative easing (dropping dollars from helicopters) is riddled with Catch-22 implications. Bernanke revealed his plan in his 2002 speech about deflation:

“The U.S. government has a technology, called a printing press (or today, its electronic equivalent), that allows it to produce as many U.S. dollars as it wishes at no cost.”

The expectations of most when reading Ben’s words were that his helicopters would drop the dollars across America. What he has done is load up his helicopters with trillions of dollars and circled above Wall Street for two years continuously dropping his load. Bernanke’s quantitative easing, which will triple the Fed’s balance sheet by June of 2011, began in earnest in early 2009. The price for a gallon on gasoline was $1.62. Today, it is $3.05, an 88% increase in two years. Gold was $814 an ounce. Today, it is $1,421 an ounce, a 61% increase in two years. In the last year, the prices for copper, silver, cotton, wheat, corn, coffee and other commodities have risen in price by 30% to 90%.

Quantitative easing has been sold to the public as a way to avoid the terrible ravages of deflation. The fact is there are less jobs, lower wages, lower home prices, zero returns on bank deposits, higher fuel costs, higher food costs, higher real estate taxes, higher medical insurance premiums and huge jaw dropping bonuses for the bankers on Wall Street. Somehow the government has spun this toxic mix into a CPI which has resulted in fixed income senior citizens getting no increases in their pitiful Social Security payments for two years. You can judge where Ben’s Helicopters have dropped the $2 trillion. Quantitative easing has benefited only Wall Street bankers and the 1% wealthiest Americans. The $1.4 trillion of toxic mortgage backed securities on The Fed’s balance sheet are worth less than $700 billion. How will they unload this toxic waste? The Treasuries they have bought drop in value as interest rates rise. Quantitative easing’s Catch 22 is that it can never be unwound without destroying the Fed and the US economy.

The USD dollar index was at 89 in early 2009. Today, it stands at 79, an 11% decline, which is phenomenal considering that Europe has imploded over this same time frame. Bernanke’s master plan is for the USD to fall and ease the burden of our $14 trillion in debt. He just wants it to fall slowly. Foreigners know what he is doing and are stealthily getting out of their USD positions. This explains much of the rise in gold, silver and commodities. The rise in oil to $91 a barrel will not be a top. The Catch-22 of a declining dollar is that prices of all imported goods go up. If the dollar falls another 10%, the price of oil will rise above $120 a barrel and push the economy back into recession. Then there is the little issue of at what level of printing and debasing the currency does the rest of the world lose its remaining confidence in Ben and the USD.

A few other “minor” issues for 2011 include:

•The imminent collapse of the European Union as Greece, Ireland, Portugal and Spain are effectively bankrupt. Spain is the size of the other three countries combined and has a 20% unemployment rate. The Germans are losing patience with these spendthrift countries. Debt does matter.
•State and local governments were able to put off hard choices for another year, as Washington DC handed out hundreds of billions in pork. California will have a $19 billion budget deficit; Illinois will have a $17 billion budget deficit; New Jersey will have a $10.5 billion budget deficit; New York will have a $9 billion budget deficit. A US Congress filled with Tea Party newcomers will refuse to bailout these spendthrift states. Substantial government employee layoffs are a lock.

•There is a growing probability that China will experience a hard landing as their own quantitative easing has resulted in inflation surging to a 28 month high of 5.1%, with food inflation skyrocketing to 11.7%. Poor families spend up to half of their income on food. Rapidly rising prices severely burden poor people and can spark civil unrest if too many of them can’t afford food.
•The Tea Party members of Congress are likely to cause as much trouble for Republicans as Democrats. If they decide to make a stand on raising the debt ceiling early in 2011, all hell could break loose in the debt and stock markets.
The government’s confidence game is destined to fail due to Catch-22. Will the consensus forecast of a growing economy, rising corporate profits, 10% to 15% stock market gains, 2 million new jobs, and a housing recovery come true in 2011? No it will not. By mid-year confidence in Ben’s master plan will wane. He is trapped in the paradox of Catch-22. When you start hearing about QE3 you’ll know that the gig is up. If Bernanke is foolish enough to propose QE3 you can expect gold, silver and oil to go parabolic. Enjoy 2011. I don’t think Ben Bernanke will.

http://www.theburningplatform.com/

Saturday, January 1, 2011

Searching for the Truth


In an Age of Disingenuousness

By Barry Ritholtz - December 31st, 2010, 10:00AM

On the last day of the year, I like to think back about the truths I learned this year. Some were revealed accidentally, others were the work of challenging data analysis. We happened upon some Truths during deep contemplation, and occasionally stumbled across them accidentally.

And of course, there was Wikileaks.

Regardless of your method, with a little digging, truth seekers were regularly rewarded. When you find it, often, it is not pretty; the Truth will destroy long held, cherished myths. But if you are an investor, you must go through this process on a regular basis.

If you can identify where the masses’ subjective view of reality is wrong, and then time when they begin to realize this, there are good investment returns to be had. A bonus of this process is some small measure of personal enlightenment.

In 2009 and 2010, I learned that Corporate America took over the political process via their exhaustive lobbying efforts. What was once a Democracy is now a Corporatocracy. Just because I personally despised this result did not prevent me from profiting from it. Hardware, software, and research all cost money. I can promise you it is much easier to fight the powers that be when you have an unlimited Amex card — and cold hard dollars fiat printed Fed money — to help you.

Exactly how far has the takeover gone? The corrupt US Supreme Court provided a sympathetic venue for the creation of corporate rights never envisioned by the Founding Fathers; Congress has become a wholly owned subsidiary of America, Inc. The White House talks a good game of smack, but genuflects in order to beg for job creation.

Politicians do the bidding not for the people, but for the corporate establishment. Those people who want to blame the barking, snarling government for all the woes of the world do not want you to look further up the leash to see who is giving the commands. These corporate apologists pretend to be philosophers, but in reality they are mere Fellatrix, bought and paid for by their lords and masters.

Fearing a corporate takeover of the nation isn’t nearly as radical as it sounds. Thomas Jefferson reviled the idea of big corporations: “I hope we shall…crush in its birth the aristocracy of our moneyed corporations, which dare already to challenge our government to a trial of strength and to bid defiance to the laws of our country.” Jefferson knew the influence bankers could have on a nation’s soul, and he was horrified by it.

No less a figure than Dwight D. Eisenhower — five-star Army general, Supreme Commander of the Allied forces in Europe during World War II, responsible for planning and supervising the successful invasion of France and Germany, who then became the 34th President of the United States from 1953 until 1961 — warned that “we must guard against the acquisition of unwarranted influence, whether sought or unsought, by the military-industrial complex.” He knew it was not just the military, but the entire existing corporate structure that sought to take advantage of their influence in order to thwart legitimate competition, skew Federal contracts, and exempt themselves from taxation and regulation.

What might Eisenhower have said about the bailouts, and enormous decrease in banking competition?

The surprising thing about this anomaly is that there are enormous incentives to find the objective truth. Often, it seems like the reality gets buried under a mountain of conflicting interests, with power and money and influence on one side and We, the people on the other.

However, the credit crisis and collapse has taught us one very important lesson: If you continually search for that nugget of reality, if you are willing to roll up your sleeves and sift through the vast mounds of horse shit that Wall Street and Washington regularly serve up, there is indeed, a pony somewhere in there.

That is your job in 2011: Go find the pony . . .